Volume forecast anomalies for profile class 5-8 tariffs

This article was published on 2 January 2017 in data bulletins. It has not been updated and might not reflect the current position. E&OE.

Abnormalities caused by zero volumes

For the charging year 2017/2018, several DNOs entered zero volumes for some non-half-hourly settled profile class 5-8 tariffs, perhaps on the assumption that there would be no customers on these tariffs due to P272-led migration to half hourly settled measurement classes.

In fact, P272 and the associated licence conditions only ask suppliers for best efforts to migrate customers, and there will remain customers that are non half hourly settled and on profiles 5, 6, 7 or 8 for the foreseeable future.

The effect of the zero-volume error was generally to undercharge these customers, reinforcing the incentive to resist migration to half hourly settlement.

This defect seems to be largely resolved in respect of the charging year 2018/2019.

2018/2019 abnormality in UKPN SPN

There is one other anomaly, which only affects the UKPN SPN area for the charging year 2018/2019.

Annual night-rate consumption by LV Medium Non-Domestic was estimated to between 16 and 17 MWh per MPAN per year in 2015/2016, 2016/2017 and 2017/2018, and suddenly jumps to 33 MWh per MPAN per year in 2018/2019.

Because of the rather perverse way in which coincidence correction factors work in the CDCM, the effect of this change (coupled with no major change in coincidence factor and load factor) is to increase charges on this tariff by more than 10 per cent.

Franck Latrémolière, 2 January 2017

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